The investment world is changing，dividend needed

With rising inflation and interest rate, the stock market is not doing well, so does Muni, to my surprise, muni closed fund was down drastically.

在日益增长的通货膨胀和利息之间，股市现在做的不好，包括muni, 对利息的敏锐，下降得很吓人。

The growth stocks are doing so bad, which is understandable, people take less risk and economy would fall into recession. People are scared

成长股尤其差，可以理解。人们不愿意冒险，经济有可能recession。大家都害怕了

But I found some shiny spots in the market, there some some undervalued stocks that pay huge dividends. ZIM, GOGL，the dividend rate is about 20%😀, if we hold the stock, we are paid well even the price volatility is high. Maybe for recession, we need to get dividend to give us more comfort.

但是在这个股市，我发现有一些股票付很高的分红。ZIM, GOGL, 差不多有20%, 如果我们拿住这些股票，价格波动，仅仅分红也相当不错，也许，recession, 我们就需要这些分红给我们信心。

Stock market is going to crash? 美国股市要大跌了吗？

US stock market seems to rise so well, such that people start to forget how it feels when it crashed last year. 美国股市最近涨的太好，以至于人们忘了去年股市大跌的惨状 Are we …

Stock market is going to crash? 美国股市要大跌了吗？

Turned out the muni market is not doing well when rate is on the rise. The nature of the fixed income is way more sensitive about the interest rate, and closed end has a leveraged position, so even worse. Infrastructure and energy is a better solution. Even if just staying in spy500, since it has a growth story to tell, it will go on a roller coaster run instead of straightly down.

Stock market is going to crash? 美国股市要大跌了吗？

US stock market seems to rise so well, such that people start to forget how it feels when it crashed last year.

美国股市最近涨的太好，以至于人们忘了去年股市大跌的惨状

Are we going to ride like this forever? The answer definitely is No. sp500 now sits on a dividend rate 1.3%, lower than dot.com bubble peak, the price level certainly is not sustainable.

股市难道永远会这样涨吗？答案肯定是no。普标指数现在股息率只有1.3% ,比互联网泡沫时期还要低，这样的价格指数不可持久。

When is it going to be corrected? Nobody knows. There has to be an event, a catalyst to trigger it. And seems there is no such an event in near time. But nobody can predict future.

股市什么时候才会修正呢？没人知道。必须要有一个事件，一个催化剂来发动。但是最近似乎没有这样的一件事情。但是没有人可以预测将来。

How should we prepare for it? It is a hard time question, I tried to use out option, but since it has a time on expiration, I have been losing the whole value of options. So I am thinking of a different approach this time. Since I gauge the stock market is too high, I have been investing more on Muni, utility and infrastructure closed end fund to boost monthly income and they play well with the anticipated tax increase and infrastructure bill. And when market goes south, I predict they would be going down but not the same scale of the whole market. And I will find some level when it is a good time to reallocate some of it back to the market.

我们如何准备呢? 这是一个困难的问题。我曾经用put option, 但是它有个过期期限，所以我总是丢掉整个投资的钱。这次我准备用一个不同的方式。因为我觉得股市太高，我最近都是在投资muni, 基建等的closed end fund, 一方面他们提供每个月的现金，一方面股市下跌的时候，我估计他们不会跌得比股市厉害，到时候把一部分投资重新分配到股市。

Muni is doing well And ARK is not

After I posted a while back on recommendation of Muni, it has been 4-5 months, Muni is indeed doing well. The PIMCO closed-end muni funds have generated monthly cash flow for me (roughly 5% tax-exempted return) and some of them have quite a bit price gain (> 10%). e.g. PNI, PYN and PMX. At the same time, the hottest ETF last year ARK series has not done well (YTD is negative).

I believe the overall market has reflected some of the reasons I listed before. Tax increase is on the horizon, interest rate level is low but on the projection of rising and in the U.S., the pandemic is gradually under control with more and more people getting vaccinated.

The market is still at the all-time high, but value stocks have probably more been favored than growth at this moment. Investing in overall market is ok, but be cautious about investing in high risk stocks. ARK series have reflected that.

The tragic death of prominent investor Charles de Vaulx has been a clear sign that traditional value investing is cornered. This has been repeatedly tested. As the SPY 500 heavily tilted towards Tech, now-days the tech giants (GOOG, APPL, FB, MSFT) are more like new value stocks, and we should rethink our strategy along with that line.

Will the America be saved

This is the longest dark day for 2020, and tomorrow the day becomes longer, every day, non-stop. Will the America be saved?

Covid-19 not only brought us economic crisis, also shows how our democracy is at risk. The politicians, globalists and big tech, media have gained so much power and aggression, they rather choose to destroy the foundation of this country in order to defeat who stands in their way, through cheating and lies. The country is at great danger of destroying itself within.

The founding fathers were fully aware of the weakness of men, thus they had chosen to use different branches to balance the power and avoid concentration. but they didn’t imagine all these branches rotten in the same swamp, colluded. in 2016, the election outcome had people’s voice heard, now they used ballot harvesting, machine to cheat. Without fair election, the elites don’t need to listen to the true voice anymore, as long as “there is no riot on the street”. Will American people live with this? Will the America be saved? The biggest democracy country in the world. We need courage, we need to stand up and we need to fight back. We need to pray, this is the last free land. There is nowhere else to go, so we can’t back down. We have to remember what our country was created for.

God bless USA.

Closed-End Muni as a Passive Income for High Income Earner

高收入者的被动收入的法宝-封闭式地方债基金

I came across the closed-end muni in Sep and have started purchasing for 2-3 months. In this historically low interest environment, I believe it has provided high income earner a good alternative of tax-free cash flow monthly.

我在今年九月接触到封闭式地方债基金，并且这两，三个月都在购买。在利率历史新低点的， 我认为它提供了高工资人士一种免税月付分红。

Why Muni? Municipal bond’s income is tax exempted at federal level and state level if you live in the state. If you put in the money in the saving or buy CD, the income is taxed, even the dividend from stock, interest from corporate bond and treasury note/bond, you have to pay tax as well.

为什么要投资地方债？地方债的收入是免联邦税和本州税的。如果你的前放在银行，或者买CD，股票分红，以及债券的利息，联邦政府债券利息都需要付税。

Why closed-end? Closed end fund is traded like ETF, managed like typical mutual fund. But it has unique advantage being closed at not being able to issue new or redeem old shares after IPO. It can use more leverage and it can invest more in asset. I was walking away from muni mutual fund several times because its lackluster yield. Muni closed-end funds I bought now have a distribution rate around 4.5% (tax equivalent yield around 9%) which is very attractive.

为什么选择封闭式基金。封闭式基金像ETF交易，像mutual fund这样被管理。但是封闭式基金在IPO以后不会发行或则赎回, 所以它具有一些独特的优势，可以加更多的杠杆，基金可以绝大部分投入到购买资产。我曾经看过并且放弃了地方债基金，主要是回报率太低。但是封闭式现在有4.5%的分红率（相当于税前9%）非常吸引人。

Risk? Yes, there is always some risk. It is not new that muni bond declared default. Not to mention, we are in a pandemic thus a lot of uncertainties. So to counter this, we need to invest in a fund which has good diversity as oppose to buying single bond. Secondly, pick a reputable fund that have expertise in local market so they can predict bond performance with business activities constantly in observation. Risk also presents opportunities, the fund manager can finance the buy and leverage at near-zero interest rate, also the muni bond price had been beaten down due to pandemic so the fund can add a lot of bargains to its portfolio. We are near the end of pandemic, so cash flow from distribution now should be more certain and likely to increase.

风险？风险总是会有的。地方债违约不是新事情。而且我们在全球流行病之中，有很多不确定性。所以，我们要选择有多样性的基金而不是购买一个债券。然后找一个有行业名气的基金公司，他们有专门的人员去调查这些债券后面的商业活动是不是能够支撑债券的回报。风险也同时带来机会，现在购买，杠杆的代价都很低，而且地方债的价格由于疫情被打压的很厉害，基金能够收入一些价格不错的资产。在大流行快要结束的时候，分红应该会更稳定和上升。

As I mentioned earlier due to political and economic outlook, Muni is a good place to be. Of course, a good investor will purchase the asset in several steps to smooth out price volatility.

还有一些上次政治，经济的分析，地方债是个不错的地方。当然还是要用投资的心态，逐步购入。

Why Non-Hedge is Better 为什么不对冲反而更好

This year I have learnt a great lesson from investing in hedge fund in a volatile market. My financial advisor suggested a famous hedge fund from Renaissance for me last year, I was once excited and hoped it could boost my return over my passive index fund. However its return is brutal this year.

今年我在波动特别大的市场里深刻体会了投资对冲基金的风险。去年我的投资顾问给我推荐了一个文艺复兴的对冲基金，我非常的激动，希望能比我的大盘指数基金获得更好的回报。然而今年它的回报异常的差。

Yes, we had a very shocking pandemic early in the year and market went down 40% in March and it was devastating. Then the Fed lowered interest to 0, after several crazy meltdowns as 10% down daily, then market stopped right there and went back up, like 10% up daily. It was very unpredictable and volatility went through the roof. If the investor were to stay the course and not make changes, it would not be bad after all if you look back. If you experienced 2008, it took several years to come back, while due to the powerful financial relief and optimism of pandemic overcome, the market bounced back much quickly this time. My passive index is doing so well, but the the hedge fund from Renaissance didn’t recover as fast as it should. And in July, Aug, the market turns positive while the fund didn’t come back and in Sep, Oct, the market is edging up more, Sadly the fund even lost more. What went wrong?

的确，今年年初来了一场震惊的世界范围流行病，三月份大盘跌了40%。然后美联储把利息讲到了0， 来了几次10%的熔断，市场下跌突然停止，又来了几次接近10%的上扬。这是非常难以推测的，波动性惊人的大。如果投资人不要乱调整，维持原状，现在回顾结果一点都不差。如果经历过2008的金融危机，就知道市场花了几年时间回到原处。但是这次非常有力的金融救助和最终会克服流行病的乐观，市场回弹非常快。我的指数基金走的非常好，但是我文艺复新的对冲基金却没有回来。7，8月份的时候，大盘都已经比年初要高，但是我的对冲基金没有完全恢复，9，10月，市场继续上升，但是对冲基金却还在亏钱。这到底出了什么问题呢？

I called my advisor and she got me into their monthly client meeting tele conf. The fund manager explained how they hedge by calculating beta, and the beta is off and dated in the extremely volatile market, so they under hedged when the market went down and over hedged when the market went up. The rational sounds very reasonable, but I felt they are going to have hard time again in a volatile market: the beta calculation is always dated, the faster the market change, the more difficult they can catch up with the market. I finally made up my mind to pull back the money. The redemption took months, hopefully I will get it in Dec so I can roll the money into my passive indexer and assume all the market risk and never think about hedging again.

我联系了我的顾问，她让我听听他们针对客户的电话会议，基金经理解释计算beta(和市场的关联性参数）是延后不准确的，所以市场下降的时候，没有充分对冲，市场上升的时候，过分对冲。这听起来有些道理，但是我觉得他们以后在市场波动非常大情况下都会有麻烦因为beta都是有延迟的，我总算下定决心把钱赎回来。虽然要花几个月的时间，希望12月份能拿回来，我将把它放到我的大盘基金里，承担所有的市场风险，再也不考虑对冲了。

How will the market move next year 明年美股方向

I am not a person who likes to predict how the market would move in the future, but given the historical moment we are at, it is probably worth thinking where we would put our money in the market next year.

我不喜欢预测股市，但是我们处在一个历史的关键点上，值得我们想想明年如何投资。

Who is the next President of United states is still in the air. Trump may still have a chance to win even the media seems to have already chosen who is the winner.

谁会是下一届美国总统还是没有确定。川普仍然有机会赢，虽然媒体已经选好了总统。

Economy wise, If Biden wins, he would pursue tax increase and bailout of big cities that are in budget crisis. If Trump wins, the tax mostly will remain low, corporate and tax payers will benefit from this and economy will bounce back quickly. Interest will remain low in both scenarios to give time for economy to heal. I would think muni is a good market to go in if Biden wins, the broad market will rise more if Trump wins and delivers vaccine more efficiently.

经济上来说，如果拜登胜出，他将会提高税率然后拯救陷入财政危机的大城市。如果川普胜出，税率不会改变，企业和个人收益，经济会快速反弹。利息在两个情况下都会维持低利率帮助经济恢复。拜登赢，地方债会是投资的好地方，如果川普赢并且快速提供疫苗，股市应该会持续上升。

If Biden wins and in my opinion, it was done through cheating. It is a great danger to the foundation of United States. They could employ the same mechanism to steal votes in the future and eventually controls the congress and supreme court. The change they push can radically reshape America. If nobody trusts the democracy of United States, then U.S. market is not free market anymore. The aftermath would be devastating. I simply don’t know where to invest money safely in the long run and probably think about leaving the country as the last resort.

拜扽赢出很大可能性是作弊。这是对美国的立国之本很大的伤害。他们以后会通过一样的手段控制议会和最高法庭， 然后作出一些可怕的变化。如果没人信任美国的民主， 美国的市场也不是自由市场了，后果是相当绝望的。我不能想象长期投资股市的安全性而且可能离开这个国家。

If Trump wins and he is able to put the election process in the safe hands for future, the market should be stabilized and steady up given the trust of the democratic system. But at the same time he may also put more pressure on US-Sino relationship, so there might be some bumps in the road in the short-term. But I would stay in the market amid head-winds.

如果川普赢出而且能保证以后选举制度的安全，市场应该会稳定和持续上升。但是他也可能加深美国和中国的摩擦，短期内可能会有波动。但是我会继续留在股市。

So I would allocate 20% in Muni (close-end fund to have more leverage), 80% in stock market as a balance.

考虑到两者的可能性，我会投20%到地方债（用close-end 基金加大杠杆），80%在股市。

超越市场 Beat the market

If everybody was happy with the market return (Beta Return), it would be a very boring world. Just because there are unlimited opportunities, some people do manage to beat the market and make a better return (Alpha Return) and some people fail to win the market thus they lose money. Today I am going to introduce several strategies that are useful.
如果每个人就安于市场回报（Beta 回报）， 这个世界会相当的无聊。正是因为市场上有无穷多的机会，一些人的确能够赢过市场；同时一些人也会输于市场。今天我会介绍一些有用的策略。
First of all, let me introduce Core-Satellite concept: We can assign most of our money into a passive index (e.g S&P 500), let’s say 80% and it is your core position, the rest of money can go to some other investment, such as buying some cool stock like Tesla or Amazon and they are your satellite positions. This composition allows you to gain extra return if the picked stocks are going well, and even if they don’t go well, you still have 80% in the passive index, so downside is limited and you are not going the complete opposite of the market.
先让我介绍一下核心-卫星投资概念：我们可以把大部分钱放到被动管理的大盘（比如 S&P 500), 比如80%， 它是你的核心投资。剩下的钱可以投资一些不错的股票例如特斯拉和亚马逊，这些是你的卫星投资。 这种方式可以让你获得超过大盘的回报, 如果这些股票走势不错，如果他们走势不行，你仍然有80%在大盘里，你的回报不会完全反向市场走向。
There are some options that can be your alpha:
下面有些作为Alpha的选择
Some good stocks you think will outperform.
挑选一些好的股票
Some sector likely to perform (NASDAQ, or QQQ The top 100 stock in NASDAQ).
挑选一些好的板块（比如纳斯达克， 或则QQQ ， 纳斯达克前100的股票）
Add some leverage (There are are leveraged ETF, such as UPRO (3 times of return of S&P 500), TQQQ ( 3 times of return of QQQ)
加一些杠杆（3 倍的大盘回报 UPRO, 3 倍 TQQQ的回报）
Some leveraged Muni fund (Their return are very attractive if your tax bracket is high and it also generates passive cashflow every month)
一些加杠杆的地方债基金（如果你的税率高，它回报相当不错，而且每个月提供cashflow)
One of my retirement fund has employed leverage UPRO at certain time, and it beats S&P 500 by 10% for the last year.
我的一个退休账号去年在一段时间加了杠杆，它的回报超过大盘10%
There could be other options you can apply, let me know what your thoughts are！
也许你也有其它的想法，你也可以分享一下!