Why Non-Hedge is Better 为什么不对冲反而更好

This year I have learnt a great lesson from investing in hedge fund in a volatile market. My financial advisor suggested a famous hedge fund from Renaissance for me last year, I was once excited and hoped it could boost my return over my passive index fund. However its return is brutal this year.

今年我在波动特别大的市场里深刻体会了投资对冲基金的风险。去年我的投资顾问给我推荐了一个文艺复兴的对冲基金,我非常的激动,希望能比我的大盘指数基金获得更好的回报。然而今年它的回报异常的差。

Yes, we had a very shocking pandemic early in the year and market went down 40% in March and it was devastating. Then the Fed lowered interest to 0, after several crazy meltdowns as 10% down daily, then market stopped right there and went back up, like 10% up daily. It was very unpredictable and volatility went through the roof. If the investor were to stay the course and not make changes, it would not be bad after all if you look back. If you experienced 2008, it took several years to come back, while due to the powerful financial relief and optimism of pandemic overcome, the market bounced back much quickly this time. My passive index is doing so well, but the the hedge fund from Renaissance didn’t recover as fast as it should. And in July, Aug, the market turns positive while the fund didn’t come back and in Sep, Oct, the market is edging up more, Sadly the fund even lost more. What went wrong?

的确,今年年初来了一场震惊的世界范围流行病,三月份大盘跌了40%。然后美联储把利息讲到了0, 来了几次10%的熔断,市场下跌突然停止,又来了几次接近10%的上扬。这是非常难以推测的,波动性惊人的大。如果投资人不要乱调整,维持原状,现在回顾结果一点都不差。如果经历过2008的金融危机,就知道市场花了几年时间回到原处。但是这次非常有力的金融救助和最终会克服流行病的乐观,市场回弹非常快。我的指数基金走的非常好,但是我文艺复新的对冲基金却没有回来。7,8月份的时候,大盘都已经比年初要高,但是我的对冲基金没有完全恢复,9,10月,市场继续上升,但是对冲基金却还在亏钱。这到底出了什么问题呢?

I called my advisor and she got me into their monthly client meeting tele conf. The fund manager explained how they hedge by calculating beta, and the beta is off and dated in the extremely volatile market, so they under hedged when the market went down and over hedged when the market went up. The rational sounds very reasonable, but I felt they are going to have hard time again in a volatile market: the beta calculation is always dated, the faster the market change, the more difficult they can catch up with the market. I finally made up my mind to pull back the money. The redemption took months, hopefully I will get it in Dec so I can roll the money into my passive indexer and assume all the market risk and never think about hedging again.

我联系了我的顾问,她让我听听他们针对客户的电话会议,基金经理解释计算beta(和市场的关联性参数)是延后不准确的,所以市场下降的时候,没有充分对冲,市场上升的时候,过分对冲。这听起来有些道理,但是我觉得他们以后在市场波动非常大情况下都会有麻烦因为beta都是有延迟的,我总算下定决心把钱赎回来。虽然要花几个月的时间,希望12月份能拿回来,我将把它放到我的大盘基金里,承担所有的市场风险,再也不考虑对冲了。

How will the market move next year 明年美股方向

I am not a person who likes to predict how the market would move in the future, but given the historical moment we are at, it is probably worth thinking where we would put our money in the market next year.

我不喜欢预测股市,但是我们处在一个历史的关键点上,值得我们想想明年如何投资。

Who is the next President of United states is still in the air. Trump may still have a chance to win even the media seems to have already chosen who is the winner.

谁会是下一届美国总统还是没有确定。川普仍然有机会赢,虽然媒体已经选好了总统。

Economy wise, If Biden wins, he would pursue tax increase and bailout of big cities that are in budget crisis. If Trump wins, the tax mostly will remain low, corporate and tax payers will benefit from this and economy will bounce back quickly. Interest will remain low in both scenarios to give time for economy to heal. I would think muni is a good market to go in if Biden wins, the broad market will rise more if Trump wins and delivers vaccine more efficiently.

经济上来说,如果拜登胜出,他将会提高税率然后拯救陷入财政危机的大城市。如果川普胜出,税率不会改变,企业和个人收益,经济会快速反弹。利息在两个情况下都会维持低利率帮助经济恢复。拜登赢,地方债会是投资的好地方,如果川普赢并且快速提供疫苗,股市应该会持续上升。

If Biden wins and in my opinion, it was done through cheating. It is a great danger to the foundation of United States. They could employ the same mechanism to steal votes in the future and eventually controls the congress and supreme court. The change they push can radically reshape America. If nobody trusts the democracy of United States, then U.S. market is not free market anymore. The aftermath would be devastating. I simply don’t know where to invest money safely in the long run and probably think about leaving the country as the last resort.

拜扽赢出很大可能性是作弊。这是对美国的立国之本很大的伤害。他们以后会通过一样的手段控制议会和最高法庭, 然后作出一些可怕的变化。如果没人信任美国的民主, 美国的市场也不是自由市场了,后果是相当绝望的。我不能想象长期投资股市的安全性而且可能离开这个国家。

If Trump wins and he is able to put the election process in the safe hands for future, the market should be stabilized and steady up given the trust of the democratic system. But at the same time he may also put more pressure on US-Sino relationship, so there might be some bumps in the road in the short-term. But I would stay in the market amid head-winds.

如果川普赢出而且能保证以后选举制度的安全,市场应该会稳定和持续上升。但是他也可能加深美国和中国的摩擦,短期内可能会有波动。但是我会继续留在股市。

So I would allocate 20% in Muni (close-end fund to have more leverage), 80% in stock market as a balance.

考虑到两者的可能性,我会投20%到地方债(用close-end 基金加大杠杆),80%在股市。

超越市场 Beat the market

If everybody was happy with the market return (Beta Return), it would be a very boring world. Just because there are unlimited opportunities, some people do manage to beat the market and make a better return (Alpha Return) and some people fail to win the market thus they lose money. Today I am going to introduce several strategies that are useful.
如果每个人就安于市场回报(Beta 回报), 这个世界会相当的无聊。正是因为市场上有无穷多的机会,一些人的确能够赢过市场;同时一些人也会输于市场。今天我会介绍一些有用的策略。
First of all, let me introduce Core-Satellite concept: We can assign most of our money into a passive index (e.g S&P 500), let’s say 80% and it is your core position, the rest of money can go to some other investment, such as buying some cool stock like Tesla or Amazon and they are your satellite positions. This composition allows you to gain extra return if the picked stocks are going well, and even if they don’t go well, you still have 80% in the passive index, so downside is limited and you are not going the complete opposite of the market.
先让我介绍一下核心-卫星投资概念:我们可以把大部分钱放到被动管理的大盘(比如 S&P 500), 比如80%, 它是你的核心投资。剩下的钱可以投资一些不错的股票例如特斯拉和亚马逊,这些是你的卫星投资。 这种方式可以让你获得超过大盘的回报, 如果这些股票走势不错,如果他们走势不行,你仍然有80%在大盘里,你的回报不会完全反向市场走向。
There are some options that can be your alpha:
下面有些作为Alpha的选择
Some good stocks you think will outperform.
挑选一些好的股票
Some sector likely to perform (NASDAQ, or QQQ The top 100 stock in NASDAQ).
挑选一些好的板块(比如纳斯达克, 或则QQQ , 纳斯达克前100的股票)
Add some leverage (There are are leveraged ETF, such as UPRO (3 times of return of S&P 500), TQQQ ( 3 times of return of QQQ)
加一些杠杆(3 倍的大盘回报 UPRO, 3 倍 TQQQ的回报)
Some leveraged Muni fund (Their return are very attractive if your tax bracket is high and it also generates passive cashflow every month)
一些加杠杆的地方债基金(如果你的税率高,它回报相当不错,而且每个月提供cashflow)
One of my retirement fund has employed leverage UPRO at certain time, and it beats S&P 500 by 10% for the last year.
我的一个退休账号去年在一段时间加了杠杆,它的回报超过大盘10%
There could be other options you can apply, let me know what your thoughts are!
也许你也有其它的想法,你也可以分享一下!

美国投资基金 U.S Investment Funds

As the most comprehensive,  sophisticated capital market in the world,  U.S  market has provided numerous investment options.

作为世界上最全面,最成熟的金融市场, 美国市场提供无数的投资选择。


To track the U.S economy: S&P 500 is one of the best proxies because it tracks the biggest 500 U.S company in terms of market value and it is supposed to be the strongest and it has the blend of growth and value in different industries. At the time of crisis, holding S&P 500 is safer than most of investment assuming the sizes of those big company allow them to navigate through the difficult time.  There is a broader index:  total market index that includes big cap, middle cap and small cap if you want to capture all the aspect of the economy(e.g. ITOT, Fidelity total market fund), but the performance is very close to S&P 500 itself due to those big companies taking more than 90% of the total economy. The representative ETFs for S&P500 are IVV, VOO, SPY (SPY being the most popular one)


跟踪美国经济, S&P500是最好的代理之一, 因为它代表美国最大500个公司,最强而且有各个工业,成长,价值各种组合。在经济危机的时候,手持S&P500是最比较安全的方式,因为这些大公司一般可以熬过困难时期而存活下来。还有一些更广阔的市场指数, 包括大,中等,小公司, 这更加全面的追踪美国经济(举例:ITOT ETF,Fidelity total market fund),但是由于美国大公司占了整个市场90%, 他们的表现非常相似。追踪市场的ETF有IVV, VOO, SPY(SPY是最流通一个)

To capture the bond market, there are some varieties as well, bond issued by Federal, local government and enterprises. There are some longer term treasury bill but 20-year treasury bill (TLT) only yields 1.5% now-days making bond market very unattractive. Muni bonds are attractive to people who are in high tax brackets which allow the return to be exempted from federal and local tax if the bond is issued by the local government. Bond issues by company has different ratings: AAA rating is safer with lower return; Junk bond is not safe but return is high.


债券市场也有不同投资方式国债,地方政府债,企业债。政府有不同时间长短的国债,例如TLT代表20年期限的国债, 但是现在只有1.5%回报的国债非常不吸引人。对于处于税率比较高的人来说,地方政府债券是不错的选择,因为利息是不用交联邦,州税的。企业债有不同的评级,AAA的企业债比较安全,回报低,垃圾债不安全,但是回报比较高。


Traditionally, people like to hold balance of stock and bond for better risk-adjusted return. Given that it is low rate environment, to achieve better return, there is a strategy called risk-parity trade, which adds leverage to bond, thus the return is similar to stock even with a combination of bond and stock.


一般来说,人们喜欢持有股票和债券的组合,波动性较小。但是最近是低利息时间,为了更好的收益, 有一种投资策略是risk-parity, 在债券方面增加杠杠,收益就可以和股票差不多。

Sailing 帆船

拖家人的福,投资🐶去学习了一下帆船。扬帆启航的感觉真好。完全借着风里力,看风拉帆掌舵。当帆完全吃力的时候,整个船都倾斜了,在水中滑翔的感觉太帅了。下次我再来好好学习,写写驾驶帆船的心得

Going with the family, investment-dog has a chance to learn a bit sailing. Rise the mainsail and jib, and go with the winds. when the sail captures the wind, the whole boat is almost tilted and like flying on the water with full speed. Next time I will talk about sailing in more details.

风险和回报 Risk And Return

People are usually saying, no risk no return. But I am saying If you don’t know the risk associated with the investment, sometimes you assumed all the risks without the return. I had a painful experience when I invested a lot in gold without knowing its real risk. The price is volatile and it doesn’t pay dividend. It is a speculation and I eventually lost big to learn a huge lesson.

人们总是说,没有风险没有回报。但是如果你不了解这个投资的风险,有些时候你背负了所有风险却没有回报。我曾经有因为一个不了解风险,投资黄金的痛苦教训。黄金的价格变化很大,持有也不分红。这一次投机是我损失了很多资金,学了很沉重的一课。

People are buying investment based on their perception of return and sometimes ignored the risk or mis-assessed the risk. Risk is modeled in the financial term as volatility. It is the variation of the trade price over time. In statistics, it is measured by standard deviation. Intuitively to average investor, we can see some stock price jumping up and down, for example, TSLA, which can go from $200 to $2000 in one year and some other investment, like the money market fund, the price doesn’t move.

人们通常买资产都是看中想象中的回报,往往忽略或者误判了风险。风险在金融里通常用波动性来建模。通常是一段时间里价格变化。统计上用标准偏差来计算。直觉上来说,我们能看一些股票比如特斯拉(Tesla),能够一年从两百多到两千多,而另外一些投资,比如货币市场资金,价格几乎不变。

But if you don’t know the risk, sometimes, you assumed a much bigger risk than you thought. One example is investing in gold. People turned to use gold as a hedge. But often it is not true because there is no direct link of opposite performance. When people used gold to hedge 2016 US election market crash, it was a big fallout. But if you think the future for U.S. economy is good, you should keep investing in U.S. market with total understanding of price volatility and stay in the market. If you want to hedge the market risk, buying put option makes more sense than buying gold.

如果你不明白投资的风险,有时候你背负了比你想象中大很多的风险。一个例子是黄金。人们希望用黄金来对冲市场崩溃,但是这常常是不对的, 这两者并没有直接相反的关联。当人们用黄金来对冲美国2016选举产生市场崩溃,结果是非常错误的。如果你认为美国市场长期看好,你应该持续投资并且长期持有,如果想要对冲市场,买put option比买黄金更直接。

投资和投机 Investing v.s. Speculation

Investing or speculation are two very different ways of thinking. If a person sees the asset valuable and want to hold for a long time, he would like to buy it at the right price and hold it for a long time until the value is not worthy in his opinion. If a person is not sure about owning the asset while he is trying to guess its price will rise or fall and trying to profit from that, it is called speculation.

投资和投机是两种非常不同的想法。如果一个人认为资产有价值想要长期拥有,他会有合适的价格购买,直到觉得不值拥有才会卖掉。如果一个人不确定是否要拥有,只是在猜价格会涨会跌,想要从中获益,这就是投机。

A lot of people think the stock market is volatile, and it is easy to lose money. I am asking him this question: do you think the stock is worthy? If yes, buy it with smaller amount of money over a long investing period. This way you can smooth out the volatility of prices. And you hold it until your opinion changes. If you are trying to time the market to buy low and sell high, you are more like a gambler, because nobody knows it will rise or fall tomorrow and you are not smarter than all the people trying to gauge the price. The price is hard to be “right” at any moment, because it is all about supply and demand.

很多人认为股市波动太大,非常容易输钱。我就想问他这个问题,你觉得这个股票值得拥有吗?如果答案是是,采用分批买入可以减少的价格波动,然后长期持有直到你改变主意。如果你去猜价格,想买低卖高卖,这很像赌博,因为没人能预知价格会涨会跌,你也不会比市场上所有猜价格的人聪明。价格很难在对的点,因为由供给和需求决定的。

This strategy (dollar-cost averaging) is particular useful when investing with index which is diversified to eliminate individual risks. If your answer is yes when investing the US market, using the strategy can help you earn market return.

这种策略(定期定额投资)对于投资大盘指数非常有用,指数已经是分散投资没有单个股票的风险。如果你对美国市场有信心,利用这种投资能满足获得市场的回报。

无为投资 Effortless Investment Style

It is not a negative term at all to invest effortlessly. As we all know, most active investments can’t beat the broad market and the management fee and expense is way higher. A lot of famous hedge funds can’t consistently beat the market either. I bought renaissance hedge fund which claims to be one of the best in the world and its return is rather disappointing compared to the s&p 500.

无为投资绝对不是一个负面的词。我们知道,绝大多数的主动管理的基金并不能超过大盘的回报,而且他们有很高的管理费用。很多著名的对冲基金并不能次次都赢过大盘。我曾经买过著名的文艺复兴的基金,它的表现对比大盘相当失望。

Maybe as a Chinese old saying: 无为(no-action), in recognizing the market is full of all kinds of investors and traders. They may know some information you don’t know or they may employ complicated models and strategies. To beat the the market is possible with effort, but your effort is likely counter-productive and you could lose to the market.

就如中国古代的说法:无为而治,要认识到市场里充满了各种各样的投资者和炒盘手。他们可能知道你不知道带一些消息或者用一些复杂的模型和策略。要赢这样的市场,赢要花力气而且往往你的努力是反的,然后就输给了市场。

As a average investor, staying with the market is the best and effortless strategy. The time in the market is more important than timing the market. No to mention spy 500 offers dividends payout as well.

作为一个普通的投资者,最简单不花力气的就是投资大盘。时间花在市场里比去猜涨跌要重要。而且大盘指数会发分红。

There are several ETF tracking broad market: ivv, spy, voo. And fidelity also offers some 0 fee index fund that tracks market too.

有些的ETF是跟踪大盘的:ivv, spy,voo。fidelity 还有一些没有费用的指数基金。

ETF has a way to capture intraday return, mutual fund has a way to reinvest the dividends on your behalf, so you can completely be off the hook. So the time can be yours completely while the dividends are compounded and gain returns.

ETF可以获取一些盘间的回报,基金能则可以被动将分红再去投资,所以你完全不用管。这样你的时间就完全属于你自己了。

So if you want to be completely effortlessly gaining market return, zero fee index fund is your best instrument.

所以完全的无为投资,没有花费的指数基金是最好的金融产品。

财富自由 Financial freedom

Usually we achieve the financial freedom by generating passive income. Once the passive income can cover the cost of living, people don’t need to work anymore. It doesn’t mean you stop working completely, but actually means you have the freedom to do what you want to do and plan your life with complete control.

通常我们通过被动收入来获得财富自由。如果被动收入能够支付所有的花销,人就不用在工作。不用工作的意思并不是不做任何事情,而是有自由去做更多的事情。不用在为钱工作,而是根据你的兴趣和喜欢的生活方式来计划你的生活。

Thus the first thing we need to understand what the cost of living is. What is your annual expense on rent,mortgage and grocery, dining, travel .. etc. If your annual cost of living is $50000, then if your asset can generate this income annually, then you don’t have to work anymore.

第一件事情就是需要明白自己的生活花销,租房,房贷,食物,外食,旅游等等。如果你的一年花费是5万美元,如果你的资产可以产生这些收入,你就不用再工作了。

To achieve this goal, there are different methods to generate the income, each of them is associated with particular risk/return profile.

要达到这个目标,你需要了解有什么办法能够产生收入,这些选择有他们不同风险,收入的特性。下面单独列出一些这些投资风险和回报

Financial Products 金融产品

Investment property 出租房

Small business/Freelance 小生意/自由职业

Startup 创业