How will the market move next year 明年美股方向

I am not a person who likes to predict how the market would move in the future, but given the historical moment we are at, it is probably worth thinking where we would put our money in the market next year.

我不喜欢预测股市,但是我们处在一个历史的关键点上,值得我们想想明年如何投资。

Who is the next President of United states is still in the air. Trump may still have a chance to win even the media seems to have already chosen who is the winner.

谁会是下一届美国总统还是没有确定。川普仍然有机会赢,虽然媒体已经选好了总统。

Economy wise, If Biden wins, he would pursue tax increase and bailout of big cities that are in budget crisis. If Trump wins, the tax mostly will remain low, corporate and tax payers will benefit from this and economy will bounce back quickly. Interest will remain low in both scenarios to give time for economy to heal. I would think muni is a good market to go in if Biden wins, the broad market will rise more if Trump wins and delivers vaccine more efficiently.

经济上来说,如果拜登胜出,他将会提高税率然后拯救陷入财政危机的大城市。如果川普胜出,税率不会改变,企业和个人收益,经济会快速反弹。利息在两个情况下都会维持低利率帮助经济恢复。拜登赢,地方债会是投资的好地方,如果川普赢并且快速提供疫苗,股市应该会持续上升。

If Biden wins and in my opinion, it was done through cheating. It is a great danger to the foundation of United States. They could employ the same mechanism to steal votes in the future and eventually controls the congress and supreme court. The change they push can radically reshape America. If nobody trusts the democracy of United States, then U.S. market is not free market anymore. The aftermath would be devastating. I simply don’t know where to invest money safely in the long run and probably think about leaving the country as the last resort.

拜扽赢出很大可能性是作弊。这是对美国的立国之本很大的伤害。他们以后会通过一样的手段控制议会和最高法庭, 然后作出一些可怕的变化。如果没人信任美国的民主, 美国的市场也不是自由市场了,后果是相当绝望的。我不能想象长期投资股市的安全性而且可能离开这个国家。

If Trump wins and he is able to put the election process in the safe hands for future, the market should be stabilized and steady up given the trust of the democratic system. But at the same time he may also put more pressure on US-Sino relationship, so there might be some bumps in the road in the short-term. But I would stay in the market amid head-winds.

如果川普赢出而且能保证以后选举制度的安全,市场应该会稳定和持续上升。但是他也可能加深美国和中国的摩擦,短期内可能会有波动。但是我会继续留在股市。

So I would allocate 20% in Muni (close-end fund to have more leverage), 80% in stock market as a balance.

考虑到两者的可能性,我会投20%到地方债(用close-end 基金加大杠杆),80%在股市。

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